Arabica coffee futures gave up ground to make new lows at 180.60 on the Jul23 contract, levels not seen since April 10. The “C” market drives back into oversold territory in the stochastics as the dollar continues to make new highs also at levels from a month ago on April 3. The volume was noted below the 183.00 level, reaching a total of 43,558 lots including 12,153 switches. The settlement possibly pointed out mixed signals as it settled below the 200-day moving average but with a significant bounce, ending with a minimum change of 15 points lower at 182.85 cents per pound for the Jul23 contract. Stocks turned lower on weaker consumer sentiment data released today. Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% to 57.7 in today's preliminary data release, showing escalated worries about the economy amid an increase in headlines about regional bank failures and the debt crisis standoff in Washington. Arabica certified stocks decrease 1,650 bags to 644,735 bags. Pending grading 0.
Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2432 +39 with a 2449/2385 range. Volatile day but market found support after yesterday’s strong sell off. Commercial activity was present but not aggressive, scale down roaster buying was seen. Price action today had the hallmarks of spec Arb selling towards the close (sell NY buy LDN). Spreads also rallied with Jul/Sep seeing a 18/26 range on 4.3k lots settling higher at +22. Sep23 2450 calls vs 2395Δ44 traded 1200x @ 103, CSO - ICEU - Jul23/Sep23 0 put traded 1000x @ 6.
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Arabica coffee futures set new lows for the week before Jun23 options expiration tomorrow. The dollar strength capped all gains early in the session. CECAFE brasil exports reported a 19.9% drop for the January to April period compared to the same period last year and a 10.3% drop in April compared to the same month last year. Next week kicks off with GCA data on Monday. The most active contract Jul23 settle 295 points lower at 183.00 cents per pound. US Inflation and jobs are again the focus today. The producer price index rose just 0.2% month-on-month in April, down from analyst expectations of 0.3%, but also much better than the deflationary contraction of 0.5% in March. The headline PPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, down from analyst expectations of 2.5% and below the 2.7% posted the previous month. First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 264K in the week ending May 6, up from 242K the previous week, and well-above analyst expectations of 245K claims. Arabica certified stocks decrease 3,445 bags to 646,385 bags. Pending grading 0.
The Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2393 -88 with a 2500/2386 range. Early in the session, flat prices got off to a strong start, posting a new high of 2500 base N3, quite likely this was short term specs / new longs stop hunting at the psychological level. However, no stops were uncovered, and we drifted lower. Coming into the final hour of trading, a flurry of aggressive selling hit the market, causing a sharp drop of $64 seemingly with no clear reason other than a rejection of the highs and a long liquidation into a vacuum of buying. Nearby spreads weakened a touch due to the selling, with Jul/Sep seeing a daily low of +18, levels now seen since early March, at just short of 4k lots. The CSO Buy Jul23/Sep23 0 puts - Buy Jul23/Sep23 -10 puts traded 2250x @ 10. |
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