Arabica coffee futures consolidated lower Wednesday on eased volatility after the previous wild session. EU and Latin America holidays contributed to the slow day. The active contract for July delivery closed 65 points lower at 216.00 cents a pound. Volume reached 46,177 lots including 11,904 switches. The nearby July- September switch gained 10 points premium to end at 1.95cents. Today it traded up to 2.10 near recent highs. The market structure has again gained backwardation to the extent it appears predicting that the physical tightness could be prolonged given the Robusta situation in the global supply/demand balance. The dollar was firm during the session as market’s participants were awaiting the FED's announcement on interest rates. As expected, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50 % range. However, the FED signaled it is still leaning towards eventual reductions of the rate, but noted recent disappointing inflation data could cause a delay on the decision. Cert stocks increased by 7,618 bags to 667,376 bags. Pending grading down 6,243 bags to 80,020. Graded today: 9,678 bags. Passed 7,618 (2,233 BR, 4,560 NI, 825 PE). Failed 2,060 (960 BR, 1,100 PE)
Robusta Jul24 contract settled at $3,978 -43 with a 4058/3955 range. Another sluggish session with a new recent low printing. It seems although rumours still circulate around the fundamental situation this is not having a great impact on flat price. Commercial participation is sporadic with light scale down buying seen and virtually zero origin selling. With no fresh news momentum slows and short term specs start to sell. This lack of commercial interest is reflected in the poor outright volumes, only 10,205 lots traded on the most active Jul24 contract. Structure weakened a touch, Jul/Sep saw a 70/84 range on 3k lots. Robusta Jul24 4500 calls vs 4016Δ22 traded 750x @ 72.
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Arabica coffee futures settled higher on Monday supported by the Robusta market and the constructive technical outlook. The active July contract finished 3.50 cents higher at 227.50 cents a pound. Despite some rains in Vietnam, reservoirs used to irrigate crops in Central highlands are critically low and rains should develop before May 15 to avoid irreversible damages to the crops. Activity was light reflecting the absence of commercial activity. The volume reached 29,750 lots including 6,969 switches. Technically, a double bottom formation tested on Friday, and the breach of the short-term down trend could indicate a possible return to the recent highs. Commodity prices declined today. Cocoa suffered another blow as prices fell 14% to end at $9,150 per ton. Certified stocks increased 4,695 bags to 661,352 bags. Pending grading also increased by 4,515 bags to a new total of 60,719. Today a total of 4,820 bags were graded (3,995 BR, 825 HN), all of them passed. No bags failed grading. Robusta Jul24 contract settled at $4164 with a 4239/4137 range. Market continues to operate at the lower end of the recent range with very little commercial interest. Sporadic roaster buying was seen scale down. Despite the softer market talk continues to circulate about issues in Vietnam and production / output which is providing support to flat price. Jul/Sep saw a 72/95 range on only 1.8k lots. Robusta Jul24 4000/3600 putspread vs sell 5000 call vs buy 4200Δ36 traded 1500x @ 58, Robusta Sep24 2800 puts vs 4105Δ3 traded 1000x @ 12, Robusta Sep24 3500 puts vs 4105Δ20 traded 1000x @ 101. |
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