Arabica coffee futures for September delivery settled 340 points lower at 161.35 cents a pound, continuing the speculative liquidation pressure on the market. The active September-December switch remained volatile, trading in a 25/ 85 range. The weak technical performance attracted speculators who believe that prices may test the 155-157.50 area in a near future. Prices have been inside the same range for the last six weeks. The September contract has demonstrated support near the 155 level, as any dip approaching that area has caused a recovery. Resistance, on the other hand, has been found in the 167.5-170 range. For the week, Arabica prices advanced by 345 points, or 2.2%, due to short covering as evidenced by the 4,179-lot decrease in open interest since last Friday to 195,989 lots on Thursday. No changes in the certs stocks that remain at 527,942 bags. A decrease of 810 bags since last Friday. Pending grading 0.
Robusta Sep23 contract settled at $2612 -33 with a 2660/2600 range. Market drifted lower on low volumes. Extremely low conviction at the moment in Robusta and we are just operating in the 2550/2700 range, a slip below the 40ma bought small algo selling into light roaster buying. No notable options traded.
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Arabica coffee futures for September delivery settled 50 points higher in a slow session. Market was supported by a weak dollar that helped the commodity complex in general. Latin American currencies ended mixed. The real from Brazil lost 0.8% to BRL 4.8095. The Colombian peso strengthened today trading at COP 3998, below the 4000 level for the first time since 6/25/2022. According with local sources in Colombia, the internal price recovered, reflecting reports of a poor “mitaca” crop and supply shortages. The carga (125-kg) was quoted at COP1,350,000 (ref price) from COP 1,250,000 recently. Another factor supporting the internal price is that Colombian imports of coffee declined 30 % during June. In Brazil sales are very limited, recent heavy rains cause concerns the harvest could suffer delays. Producers continue to hold on to supplies waiting for prices to become more attractive. Arabica certs declined 2937 bags as of July 18 to 541,266 bags. Pending grading remains at 4.371 bags. No grading on Tuesday.
Robusta Sep23 contract settled at $ 2532 -20 with a 2563/2517 range. Lethargic low volume day with little commercial activity. Market is drifting lower on very light volume and no fundamental news, algos being the main sellers into flat price weakness. Some light commercial buying has been observed in the early part of session, but this seems to dry up as the US come online. Spreads remain very firm but are softening off the highs as flat price comes lower. Sep/Nov saw a 130/148 range on 1.3k lots. Robusta stocks saw a 179 lot draw down, total now sits at 5,275. No tenders today vs Jul23. Most notable trade was Robusta Sep23/Nov23 200 call TRADES 500X @ 19. |
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