Arabica coffee futures started the session on a positive note before the US CPI release and with the Brazil market in holiday the absence of sellers both spec and producer seem absent. Volume was moderate trading a total of 45,246 including 12,929 switches. NY market pick up before the settlement trading above early highs. The DEC23 contract settled +160 points at 149.30 cents per pound. The US CPI and jobless claims send mix signals to the markets, a sense of cautious optimism was sense early on the day. Minutes of the September FED meeting was released Wednesday. A growing number of policymakers are concerned about the uncertainties of the economy and rising commodity prices, some still support at least one more rate hike at the latest meeting, while others support the idea of proceeding carefully as the yields on longer term treasuries trend higher. The result might just be an extended pause. Thursday Arabica certified stocks increased by 5,800 bags to 448,022 bags, pending grading at 2,240 bags, Total graded today 2,905 bags, passed 2,580, failed 325.
Robusta JAN24 contract settled 23 points higher at $2255 with a range of 2263/2231. London market managed to hold above the 200-day moving average at 2235 today and caped by the first resistance at around 2272, a settlement above this level could fuel the run to the area of 2300/2320. Vietnams coffee exports in the first nine months of this year were at 1.25 million metric tons, a fall of 8.3% from the same period last year, customs data showed. US dollar index remained positive trading up to 106.33 after Robusta’s session ended.
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Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled 65 points higher at 146.05 cents a pound. The activity was light with the volume reaching 39,543 lots including 10,560 switches. The Brazil’s rains forecast for the weekend continue to put some pressure on the prices, however the late models are anticipating a period with light rains after. The Brazil currency recovered today after posting a new six-month low during the previous session. Technical oscillators continuing to approach over sold conditions discouraging speculative selling. At the same time, a bounce from the January’s low of 144.85, boosted spec buying. The commodity complex firmed today following the US job report as 336,000 jobs were added in September almost double what the market was expecting. The certified stocks were unchanged at 442,222 bags. Pending grading 8,365. No grading reported today.
Robusta Nov23 contract settled at $2462 -7 with a 2480/2446 range. Another extremely quiet session. The market is really lacking any kind of fresh fundamental story to trigger a breakout of the recent range. We are just chopping across moving averages with light roaster buying. Structure remains unchanged Nov/Jan saw a 92/103 range on 3k lots. Robusta Jan24 2500 calls vs 2360Δ32 trades 500x @ 55. |
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