Arabica coffee futures extend higher, the most active contract Mar24 settled 260 points higher at 172.10 cents a pound. Volume continues to show large activity nearing Dec23 option expiration this Friday and FND for the Dec23 contract on November 21st, a total of 89,790 lots traded including 28,356 switches. Yesterday activity reflected long liquidations in the OI. Market participants expect the OI on Dec23 contract to maintain the volatility in the next 8 sessions. The weather in Brazil is helping prices because the dry conditions are returning or at least that is what is expected this week, at the same time, certified stocks continue to decline with another 27,414 bags withdrawn today totaling 49,508 bags so far this week. Certified stocks now at 310,501, 0 pending grading. The Z/H switch was stable at around 1.10 to 2.45 for most of the session with a noticeable move after the NY settlement calculation spiking all the way to 3.20. In Brazil there is congestion in the ports, and it causes delays. Sugar traders are mentioning that sugar shipments are delayed about 45 days.
Robusta Jan24 contract settled at $2406 with a 2412/2358 range. A positive day with Robusta largely being dragged higher inline with the Arabica market. Worth noting today was an ‘’inside day’’ just regaining some of the losses from yesterday’s session. Commercial activity was light with origin selling seen scale up, predominantly in the Mar24 contract. Flat price volumes remains light with only 7.6k lots trading on the Jan24 contract. Structure also strengthened Jan/mar saw a 36/50 range on 2.1k lots, rebounding off the recent low of +36. Robusta Jan24 2450 calls vs 2395Δ42 traded 1000x @ 67
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Arabica coffee futures fell today as speculative profit taking weighed on the prices. The most active contract for March delivery settled 220 points or 1.28 % lower at 169.50 cents a pound. Volume reached 83,730 lots boosted by 25,959 switches. The active nearby December/March switch lost 70 points premium to end at 1.30 cents on heavy liquidation. The speculative profit taking was induced after the market was not able to break previous highs. Open interest increased 1,332 lots, evidencing new buyers yesterday, who were possibly nervous and disappointed with the action. On chart over bought values encouraged selling. In San Jose, Costa Rica, the Sintercafe conference will begin tomorrow. On Friday, CECAFE will release the Brazil export data for October. Preliminary report from the government showed an increase of 25% year on year. Certified stocks declined 9,640 bags to 337,915 bags. Pending grading 0.
Robusta Jan24 contract settled at $2358 -64 with a 2417/2342 range. Robusta gave up all of yesterday’s gains and more, putting us right back into the middle of the recent 2300/2400 range. Today was mostly short term long liquidation with very little commercial activity. Softer Arabica market and a much softer structure seem to be the main trigger for the sell off. Volumes were moderate with 11k lots trading on the most liquid Jan24 contract. Jan/Mar traded 3.5k lots between 36/59. Robusta Jan24/Mar24 50 call traded 600x @ 20, Robusta Jan24 2400/2500 call spread vs 2355Δ17 traded 500x @ 33, Robusta Jan24 2500/2600 call spread traded 500x @ 18. |
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