Arabica coffee futures for May delivery at the ICE Exchange in New York settled 230 points 1.2 % lower at 186.70 cents a pound. Short term specs were noted as good sellers after the market failed to test last week’s highs. A pattern of moderate rains in Brazil will continue to improve the perspective of the crop. After the recent estimates the 2024-25 crop appears near to 69.0 million bags. Technically, a slightly bearish outlook encouraged the speculative selling as well. The Friday’s COT report showed funds as of Jan 30 holding a 34,110 net long position, the highest since Feb 2022, that could be vulnerable in case of a liquidation. Latam currencies devaluated as the dollar regain grown. Certified stocks increased by 14,565 bags to 281,455 bags. Pending grading declined 12,355 to 52,759 bags. Graded today: 17,160. Passed 14,566 (BR 12,365, PE 2,200), failed 2,595 (BR 2,045, NI 550).
The Robusta terminal drives further loses today as the USD surges to eleven-week highs following the Fed comments and participants continue to discuss the mobilisation of conillon destine for the board. This has encouraged the short term speculative longs to reverse bets, prompted also by a layer of arbitrage short covering drawing selling to London, which naturally pressures spot structure. The technical outlook remains negative with initial key targets resting at £3056 basis March24.
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Arabica coffee futures for March delivery settled 225 point or 1.15% lower at 191.95 cents a pound. A day with reduced activity. The operations were mainly from short-term speculators looking for price volatility within the price range of the last four sessions. The nearby active Mar/May switch showed some weakness ended 2.95 cents down 30 points. The perspective for the Brazil 2024-25 crop improved as some rains developed recently and forecast for next week are expecting moderate to heavy rains in areas of Minas and Espiritu Santo. During the week Arabica prices advanced 2.50 cents or a 1.3%. Fundamentally, the weather appears more favorable for the Brazil crop, while in Colombia El Nino has caused drought in main producing areas of Antioquia and Huila. According with local sources, if rainfall does not come soon coffee plantations in Huila could be affected. Technicals are neutral to negative as oscillators began to show the market a little weak against the recent highs. Cert stocks increased by 4,997 bags to 266,890 bags. Pending certification decreased 5,465 bags to 65,114 bags. Graded today a total of 9,945: 5,202 passed and 4,743 failed.
COT (CIT) Non-commercials increased their long position by 4,373 lots to 55,789 lots long and increased their short position by 3,628 lots to 21,679 lots short, with a net long position of 34,110 lots in the week to January 30th. In London, the Robusta position for March delivery closed $50 or 1.5% lower at $3237 per ton. The market turned lower as farmers in Vietnam increase selling before the Tet holiday begins on the 8th. At the same time the specs were encouraged to liquidate longs as prices failed to maintain this week’s advance. Robusta prices posted a historic high this week supported by supply tightness and firm roaster’s demand. |
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