Arabica coffee futures fell Monday as fundamentals continue to shift slightly bearish. The most active contract for May delivery settled 70 points lower at 179.60 cents a pound. Activity was light with the volume reaching 26,823 lots, including 5,802 switches. The action today was dominated by short term specs looking for volatility. Certified stocks data continues to add weight to the market. After increasing 16,895 bags last week, cert stocks increased 8,640 bags today to a total of 332,797 bags. Since the beginning of the month, certified stocks have increased by 82,968 bags, and although they remain close to the lowest levels in recent years, the recent increase would be an indication of flow of fresh coffee from Brazil. Pending grading stand at 125,881 bags. Recent rains in Brazil have been favorable for the development of the crop and forecast for moderate to heavy rains expected next days will continue to improve the outlook for the 2024 output that now appears to be closer to 68 to 69 million bags. Reviewing Friday’s COT report, the funds are still vulnerable as their net long position remain high at 34,206 lots despite a reduction of 3,856 lots.
Technically, the market consolidated after Friday's breakout. Next support would be 175/ 173 and resistance remain at 182.50 /185.00. (May contract). Robusta May24 contract settled at $3020 -10 with a 3075/3011 range. A slow day with flat price eventually finding support on the 40ma. Commercial activity seems somewhat muted with sporadic buying scale down. Specs seems to be the most active participants liquidating nearby longs. Structure remains unchanged with May/Jul seeing 2.2k lots trade between 53/59. Robusta CSO Jul24 0 put traded 1000x @ 8, Robusta May24 3200 call traded 700x @ 86.
0 Comments
Arabica coffee futures closed with gains on Thursday, partially recovering from the strong loss of the previous session. The contract with the highest activity for May delivery closed 235 points higher at 185.15 cents per pound. After the opening, speculative selling tried to pressure prices, however short players were discouraged from continuing selling due to the lack of follow-through without solid sales and the proximity of oversold levels. Volume eased today reflecting less trading as is typical when market approaches the First Notice Day of the March position, Feb 19th. The near March/May switch lost a bit of premium as rolls decline. The structure remains inverted until the end of the third quarter. Certified stocks remained unchanged at 302,462 bags, while those pending certification added 7,722 bags for a total of 63,477 bags.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3108 +18 with a 3124/3069 range. Flat price found support at the lower end of the recent range. Light commercial buying provided a majority of the support with virtually zero origin selling noted. General focus for participants is tidying up any unwanted Mar24 positions pre FND, currently still 25k lots of Open interest. Structure was fairly uneventful with Mar/may only seeing 2k lots trade between 92/109. Robusta CSO Mar24/May 120/75 putspread traded 500x @ 24, Robusta Coffee CSO Mar24/May 100 call traded 1000x @ 16. |
|