Arabica coffee futures corrected the recent uptrend Tuesday on speculative liquidations. The most active contract for May delivery settled 355 points lower at 183.35 cents a pound. Volume reached 47,430 lots including 12,810 switches. The spec selling came after an initial rally failed to attract solid buying. Selling pressured the May/July switch also that ended at 1.95 or 45 points lower. A significant increase of the open interest yesterday, 5,140 contracts to 219,951 contracts, probably evidencing weak long players added the bearish sentiment. Traders and coffee professionals will gather in Nashville this weekend for the NCA convention. Certified stocks added 9,400 bags to 381,107 bags. Pending increased by 1,533 bags to 160,955. Graded today 19,770 bags (BR 14,080, PE 5,050, PNG 640). Passed grading 10,000 (BR 8,320; PE 1,680). Failed 9,790 (BR 5,760, PNG 640, PE 3,370).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3180 -9 with a 3217/3163 range. Slow inside day session with low volumes. Market struggled to gain traction to get above yesterday’s high running into some light producer selling. Structure also remained within the recent range which previously has been the trigger for speculators to add longs. May/Jul saw a 78/90 range on 3k lots. Very little in the way of fresh news in today’s session. Robusta May24 2500 put traded 500x @ 3.
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Arabica coffee futures closed higher Monday boosted by the firm structure and technical factors. The contract with most of the activity for May delivery settled 360 points or 1.9 % higher at 186.40 cents a pound. The nearby May/July switch gained 50 points to end with a 2.40 cents premium. Good speculative buying in anticipation of similar behavior of the March / May supported the structure. After trading for most of the previous year between -100 to flat, the March/May jumped to 9.00 before the FND surprising participants. At the same time, the constructive technical picture contributed to lure solid buying. The easy breach of resistance levels at 185 and 187.50 also triggered buy-stop-orders from funds that are looking to return to the market place. Coffee trades will gather in Nashville for the 2024 National Coffee Association Convention from Thursday to Saturday. On Monday the 11th, CeCafe (Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil) will release the February exports data. Certified stocks increased 11,160 bags to 371,707 bags. Pending grading added 2,050 bags to 159,422 bags. Grading on Monday 19,520 Bags (BR 19,200; IN 320). Passed grading 10,560 bags (BR), failed 8,960 bags (BR 8,640; IN 320).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3189 +46 or 1.46% higher, with a 3238/3122 range. Flat price continued its upside momentum largely fuelled by speculative buying into a total absence of commercial selling. It’s clear the tightest in the physical market remains with no let up on the horizon which can be seen in the way structure has also rallied. May/Jul saw an 81/100 range today on 3.6k lots. Option activity was mixed with highlights below: Robusta May24 3150/3000 putspread vs 3210Δ16 traded 2000x @ 55, Robusta Jul24 2800 puts vs 3118Δ22 traded 1000x @ 71, Robusta Buy 2x Jul24 3200 calls - Sell 3x Jul24 3400 calls traded 500x @ 20. |
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