Arabica coffee futures for December delivery closed 145 points higher at 230.25 cents a pound. Volume was moderate with a total of 33,628 lots being traded including 8,784 switches. Speculators' buying was encouraged after prices found support against the mid value of the Bollinger's study. Although some rains are expected for the southern areas of Brazil, the forecasts are not very clear, and a dry pattern could return after a week. Concerns about the lack of coffee for the next season continue among dealers. Rabobank adjusted its previous estimate of surplus for the 2022/23 season of 1.7 million bags, to a deficit of 1.3 million bags, mainly in the Arabica output. Global production was estimated at 169.0 million bags from 172.3 million previously estimated. Arabica certified stocks decreased by 4,772 bags to 630,424 bags. Pending grading: 65,119 bags. No grading today. Brazil markets will be closed on holiday tomorrow. Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2262 +45 with a 2269/2210 range. Strong performance without the support of Arabica, I think due to the issues fundamentally in Arabica roasters are turning to Robusta to fill gaps / change blends hence the divergence today. Volumes remain on the lower side with 8k lots changing hands on NOV22 and 2.5k on the most active spread (Nov/Jan) between 7/17. The close today meant we are now back into the middle of the most recent range 2200/2350 next resistance level seems to be 2325. NOV22 2150/2000 put spread lu vs 2252 traded 2500x @ 30. No new CSO’s going through.
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Arabica coffee futures closed lower pressured by the currencies on a quiet session ahead of the long weekend. The most active contract for December delivery settled 275 points lower at 232.50 cents a pound. Volume remained low, reaching 26,422 contracts, including 6,102 switches. The active Dec/ Mar switch lost a little premium but remained near the recent record level ending at + 6.80 cents. Commercial activity was light. The dollar posted new highs since May 2002. The DX index traded at 109.65 while the euro traded under pair at 0.9940. Latin America currencies added losses as result. The real lost more than 1.0 % to BRL 5.2510 also affected by lower iron and crude oil prices. Colombian peso fell to COP 4,487. Arabica certs decreased by 1,904 bags to 670,681 bags. Pending grading: 55,302 bags. Grading today: 14,200 bags. Passed 11,910, failed 2,210. The New York market will be closed on Monday.
Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2228 -22 with a 2251/2222 range. Similar story to yesterday absence of fresh news and / or fresh buying Robusta continues to drift lower back into the middle of the most recent consolidation area. Support sits at 2215 which is the low of the most recent consolidation area. Volume was even worse, NOV22 traded less than 5k lots. NOV/JAN remain in a tight range between 10/13 on 700 lots. The interest today was again the CSO market, 2000 lots of the MAR/MAY 40/-10 fence traded at $4 again building another large position on this strike. The NOV/JAN 40 call traded 1500x @ $8 yesterday – We believed this might be an unwind but turned out this was actually a new position, now 8000 lots of OI on that strike. |
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