Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled 405 points higher at 225.15 cents a pound. The volume reached 30,103 contracts including 5,848 switches. The nearby active December / March switch gained 85 points to end at 6.50 cents. Commercial activity continued light. Specs have been covering shorts positions pushing up the market that doesn’t find sellers. With the market inverted, origin has been absent and usually accumulates sales for later and close to the delivery period. A constructive technical performance encouraged the speculative buying as well. The market found good support under the 210 level yesterday and the firm performance of today attracted solid buying. Despite some analysts consider too early to predict the size of the 22-23 Brazil’s crop, the third survey of the Brazil’s 22-23 crop by CONAB helped the bullish scenario. CONAB lowered its forecast for the 2022 output to 50.38 million 60-kg bags from the previous on May of 53.43 million 60-kg bags. The Arabica was estimated at 32.41 million from 35.7 million. Robusta was estimated at 18 million bags up 10.7% from 17.7 million bags. Certs stocks declined 17,384 bags to 515,064 bags. Pending ,120 bags. No grading today.
Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2236 +34 with a 2214/2257 range. Much of the move today is largely down to Robusta moving back in line with the Arabica. With a 10-cent rally in KC over the period many expected more out of Robusta. But with a lack of commercial activity on either side it was more of a spec led rally with commercial activity light and reactive. Volumes were low with just over 6k trading on NOV and 1.4k NOV/JAN trading. Option activity was small apart from the March 2100 puts LU being crossed 500x @ 84 with a further 100x going through on the screen. NOV22 2200/2300 range remains.
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Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled 155 points higher at 216.40 cents a pound. Activity continued light reflecting the little commercial participation. Volume reached 23,296 lots including 4,747 switches. The nearby December / March switch regained 55 points premium, ending at + 5.25 cents. Specs opted to cover short positions as the prices encountered support below the recent lows at 214 level. The dollar was steady near the recent peaks supported by expectative the FED will keep a tight policy in meeting next week. Latin American equity and currency markets declined as investors reduce risk of portfolios. The real has been volatile ahead of the presidential elections in early October. Today lost 665 points to BRL 5.23. Arabica certs stocks declined 11,689 bags to 563,766. Pending grading: 3,120 bags. No grading today.
Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2226 -4 with a 2215/2258 range. London market had a slightly bigger range both to the upside and the downside. Volume almost double previous day with a total of 15,302 lots including 4,701 switches. Unable to build above the 8-day moving average today at 2250, market opted to make a minimum brake below yesterday’s low. No significant stops were found at today’s lows, we are closer to the range 2185/2205. Nov22/ Jan22 based structure settled at $12. |
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