Arabica coffee futures settled higher Monday after the beginning of the delivery period relieved the origin selling pressure. The most active contract for March delivery closed 530 points higher at 160.40 cents a pound. The bullish sentiment was fueled too after another increment of the net short position held by the non-commercials suggested they will not add more shorts for the moment. Volume declined to 30,415 lots including 7,156 switches. The near holiday keeps the activity slow. The New York market will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. The certs increased by 15,380 bags to 513,189 bags. Pending grading 560,828 bags. Grading today 17,835 bags. Passed 15,700, failed 2,135. The markets will be looking for signals of the future interest rate hikes from the FED as it releases the acts from the last policy meeting of Nov1-2 this Wednesday.
Robusta JAN23 contract settled at $1812 +1 with a 1819/1793 range. Very quiet day with Robusta struggling to gain any traction in either direction and even with Arabica UP 5+ cents It could not manage to break above Fridays high. Origin was certainly a headwind to any kind of rally today with Viet selling present but not in the same volumes as last week. JAN/MAR had a very sluggish day with ,1k lots trading between 15/25. May23 1700 puts vs 1770Δ36 traded 1000x
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Arabica coffee futures had another negative session on Friday, as origin selling ahead of the FND continued to pressure the market. The most active contract for March delivery settled 125 points lower at 155.10 cents a pound. An initial recovery was supported by short covering as the selling eased early on the session. truckers strike in Brazil added some support. Also helping the market, a Bloomberg report with comments from Cooxupe’s president, the country’s biggest arabica coffee cooperative, mentioning a lower ratio of berries /flowers output, that could affect the size of the 2023 crop. A decline of the dollar boosted the Latin American currencies. The real of Brazil firmed 0.6 % on news that Lula’s government said that it will be committed to a responsible fiscal policy. The real ended at BRL 5.3520 after sharp fall the previous session. During the week, Arabica futures fell 10% or 16.80 cents. Weighing on prices, besides the origin selling ahead of the FND, the increase of the certified stocks as well as the pending grading, the weakness of the currencies, amid a very weak technical outlook that attracted the spec selling. Today the certified stocks increase by 13,720 at 497,809 bags. The pending grading decrease by 15,050 bags for a total of 569,638 bags. Total graded 16,320 bags, Failed 2,375, Passed 13,945.
Robusta JAN23 contract settled at $1811 -7 with a 1837/1804 range. Another day of shadowing the Arabica, a small spec short covering rally early in the session ran into a thick layer of origin selling. As the session went on origin continued to sell the market causing flat price to creep into ‘’red’’ territory. Volumes were low with 6k lots trading on the JAN23 contract. JAN/MAR saw a 17/25 range on only 1k lots. Jan23 1950/1650 strangle vs sell 1825Δ10 traded 1000x @ 25, Mar23 2000/Jan23 1900 diagonal call spread traded 1000x @ -3. |
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